What A President Should Know (Book Review)

What A President Should Know: An Insider's View on How to Succeed in the Oval Office

This book is a collection Lawrence Lindsey's "notes to the president" on how to govern. He even starts the book with elaborate story about the lengths he went to so the President would get it just before inauguration so that it would not be subject to public inspection. But if he didn't want it to be subject to public inspection one must wonder why he published it and is selling it to the public.

In fact while the story of slipping it to the president is obvious fiction, the book as a whole was quite interesting and enlightening. Having served as a finance advisor to all of the last three Republican presidents his conservative bias is obvious, but he is what I would call a good conservative (and no that doesn't mean he's dead). Rather I mean he seems to be a straight shooter, gives honest explanations and explains the ambiguities and and trade offs of the office. He doesn't have any of that annoying (unfounded) certainty that so annoys.

As an example. He took some heat from the last administration for estimating that the cost of the Iraq war would be between 100 and 200 billion dollars. Admittedly the high end is still a factor of 3 less than current estimates, but it was much closer to reality than anything else coming out of the Whitehouse in 2003. He also compares it to the costs of Vietnam and WWII as a fraction of GDP. (He does make the case that the war was the right thing, and personally I found it to be one of the more compelling ones if only for the reason that he acknowledges the possibility that it might not have been. By addressing problems and uncertainties he makes his argument, in my mind at least, more credible.) He also makes some very honest statements about the failings of the Bush administration.

He does in fact make a number of good points about focusing on one or two major items. Controlling your controllers and your staff, and the realities of getting things done in Washington. But perhaps the most interesting in my view was a recommendation that the president approach his term in office from the assumption that he would not seek reelection.

If you're cynical (and I am) you might believe this was just because McCain might not live for 8 more years and he never really liked Obama anyway. But the book is written on the assumption of not knowing who the president would be and some of his talk about how a recession may begin early in the term he seems to have written most of it well before even the democratic primary was decided. So the recommendation may have just been honest.

His points were that second terms have not been wonderful. (Nixon Resigned, Clinton was impeached, Bush was weighed down by the war, Reagan was embroiled in the Iran Contra scandal and probably beginning to suffer from Altzheimers, I may have added that last note myself.) Being in only one term allows you great controll over your successor (T. Roosevelt chose Taft.) He does not recommend telling anyone else that is the plan, and in this way he seems to feel that you have the free hand that second term presidents have while having the (apparent) accountability of a first term president that keeps you from being a lame duck. Then as your 3rd year in office rolls around you can either choose to give it another go or go picking out the person to take it to the next level.

On the other hand I was annoyed at Obama for running so young not because I didn't like him but because so few former presidents return to public office/service and I hate to lose his talent before he is 60. So to lose him at barely 50 would really annoy me.

At any rate, it was a pretty good read and I would recommend it if your are interested in public policy whether it reinforces your world view or offers alternatives it is certain insightful.

Foolish Adventures

I decided to take my boat out yesterday. I haven't started the Spring semester yet and I thought I should take it out while I still have a chance. I had one of my most exciting sailing adventures.

The winds inside alamitos bay were pretty light, but they were pointed such that I made a fairly quick clear shot out the jetty to San Pedro Bay (That's the ocean area off of Long Beach and inside the breakwater. At least that's what google maps calls it.)

In just about two hours I managed to sail all the way across the open bay area to Long Beach Harbor. I pushed it a bit farther than I normally would have because I wanted to say I had crossed out of Long Beach Harbor into Los Angeles Harbor, but I didn't make it that far. I didn't know where the division was and it would have been too far anyway. I think in the future I'll avoid that area. I got honked at by two giant boats (one was pushing a barge that carried a mack truck with its own sizeable parking lot and the other was a huge (several hundred yards long) cargo ship.) I was never in eminent danger, but I did need to change course to stay out of their way.

The return trip was uneventful. It was downwind and I made great time. I always start out heading up wind so that the return will be downwind. Sailing downwind is easier and faster though it feels slower (the wind isn't on your face and the boat doesn't heel over on one side). Unfortunately, the winds were almost dead inside Alamitos Bay and since I was in a hurry to get home I finally bummed a tow through the deadest part from a kind passing motorist. Still it was the most satisfying adventure I've had in the boat so far.

Which brings me to my dilemma. My father in law is always upset at me for taking the boat out single handed. It is designed to be sailed by two people though it is fairly easy to handle by myself. But more importantly, I'm several miles off shore by myself. I don't worry too much about drowning as I always wear a life jacket and Long Beach water while not warm is not too cold. If the boat capsized and I stayed with it I could stay out of the water and get help fairly soon (or probably right it and be on my way). But what if I was hit by the boom and knocked out temporarily. I would float all right, but I'd be hard to see. Or what if I fell overboard and the sails were cleated so that the boat kept sailing. He really is right, I should have someone else with me.

On the other hand I love the adventure and the solitude and it is very difficult to find people who want to go sailing with me. OK, it's not hard to find people who want to go, but when it's Friday morning and it looks like the winds will be good in the afternoon it is hard to find someone ready and willing to go right then. To make matters worse, I like to go places. I would love some time in June (long days and good winds) to head up and make it to somewhere on the Palos Verde penninsula at least to Cabrillo Bay. (Truth be told, I'd like to sail it to Catalina, but even I'm not that dumb. Well, I am but I would want an escort boat. Hey people swim it with an escort boat.)That's a significant time commitmant and it is work sailing upwind that far in a small boat. Most of the people who want to sail with me think in terms of a couple of hours of sailing, but this could easily be 3 out and 2 back, not to mention rigging and derigging. Where would I find someone who wanted to drop everything Friday afternoon and spend 6 hours sailing off the coast of Southern California?

So the real question is how do I pursue the sport I love, as I love it, while maintaining some reasonable safety standards. (And on the other hand is my risk really that much more than commuting by motorcycle in LA traffic? Or by barely freeway legal moped as I used to do?)

Sailing / Sailing Races

I found out several months ago that a brother in my ward had bought himself a sailboat. It was a 27 foot McGregor keelboat, that means it is about twice as long as my little dinghy. (By dinghy I simply mean centerboard boat boat as opposed to a decked over keelboat.) It is also much more designed for open water sailing while mine is more for sailing in marinas and bays.

I had been bugging him about when we were going to take it out and finally on Martin Luther King Day he said let's go. I was a bit disappointed with the date as it meant missing out on the family's first trip to the Aquarium, but I've been making a goal of improving on my male friendships (an area of my social life that has been week for decades) and I had been wanting to try his boat out for a while.

The boat needs a lot of work, but seemed to be sea worthy enough. It was fun to ride and both faster and smoother than my boat. Don't get me wrong, I love my boat and am more than willing to take it on adventurous trips, but this was a nice change of pace.

One thing that I thought was really exciting was that we saw a lot of sail boat racing. It did make sailing a bit more difficult as we had to stay out of the way of the racers.

As we headed back in the racers were also heading in. Between talking with them and looking things up on the web I discovered that we had seen the tail end of the 2009 US SAILING ISAF YOUTH WORLD QUALIFIER and U.S. YOUTH MULTIHULL CHAMPIONSHIP REGATTA. The were sailing single person dinghies (laser radials for both boys and girls), two person dinghies (420's with a slightly different version for the boys than for the girls), and open (both boys and girls competing with and against each other) multi-hulls (Hobie 16's). They were all fast agile little boats that were a lot of fun to watch. I never got very much into racing but it sure looked fun.

(Incidentally, my boat is two person dinghy rigged very much like the 420's. My boat is not nearly as high of performance boat.)

So the day was a double treat. Not only did I get to go sailing but I got to see some world class racing too.

Blago

First of all let me state that I believe former governor Rod Blagojevich is guilty and deserves to be removed from office. However, I don't know that to be the case. I know that he has been arested, but has not yet been indicted. I don't know what, if any, evidence was presented at his impeachment. I find all of this a bit disturbing. If we are willing to oust someone merely for being arested then what protection do we have against a corrupt prosecutor arresting his enemies on trumped up charges so that they get thrown out of office. I agree with impeaching him and ousting him, I just wish it could have been done in a more measured fasion. (And yes that does mean that perhaps he might have demonstrated his inocence. Although unless he could show the tapes either don't exist or are fakes I don't know how.) Let's stand by the rule of law and trust it to oust the bad guys.

Dueling Doctrine

I hesitate to post anything about doctrinal questions here as it has gotten me in trouble in the past, but this one is an honest question so maybe I can get away with it.

What is the substantive difference between the Catholic Doctrine of the Infalability of the Pope and the Mormon Doctrine that The Prophet will never lead us astray?

We often poke fun at the Catholic Doctrine because so many popes through history were clearly corrupt, but a close reading of the catholic doctrine will point out that it does not refer to his personal character or dealings in secular matter only that when speaking on matters of doctrine he is "preserved from error".

Mormons likewise believe that the prophets are humans and suffer from all the frailties of humans, but the phrase "The Prophet will never lead us astray" is uttered regularly as if it were doctrine and that seems to be the same essential sentiment.

I'm also unclear on the scriptural basis for the assertion. I can trace it to a talk given by then Elder Ezra Taft Benson who cites Wilford Woodruf's talk defending the first official declaration. There is also an unsourced quote wandering around, but one never knows if unsourced quotes were every really said at all.

I'm personally bothered because I thought that personal revelation was the hallmark of our religion, not obeysence to any scripture living or ancient. It is by personal revelation that we know the Bible, the Book of Mormon, and all the other scriptures to be true. It is by personal revelation that we know that the prophets are in fact prophets of God.

Why then are we discouraged from seeking personal revelation on matters once the prophet has spoken on them? I know some will say that we are encouraged to get personal confirmation, but really it's only confirmation we are encouraged to seek. We are told to pray to know that it is true, not to pray to know if it is true.

I'll stop there for now. So tell me, what am I missing?

Is it true that

It is better to be silent and thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt.

Or is it perhaps better to suggest that

It is better to be known for a fool and learn than to remain a fool unknown.

Pay $5 for gas

There's something special about $5/gallon gas. It was the thing we all worried about this summer as the price nearly reached that point, and it changed driving habits. It may have even had a lasting impact on american car makers' business model. (Maybe). Many say this is a good thing. Robert J. Samuelson of Newsweek recommends it for security reasons. Others recommend it for environmental reasons. Some suggest raising the price for revenue generation.

But that of course is something that either the market or the government will have to do. But is there something each of us could do? What if we each committed to paying $5/gal for gas. No I'm not saying find the most expensive gas in town, or just burn an extra $20 each time you fill up. But what if each time we bought gas we figured out what it would cost at $5/gal and squirrled the money away somewhere. Put it in your savings acount and save towards a vacation, or save it for when fuel costs really do soar. Or use it to add solar panels or donate it to energy research. Shoot invest it in energy research and get some profit back. Or save it to buy an electric car.

The point is two-fold. First we prepare ourselves for the inevitable return of high prices. If we are already paying $5 then the price shooting up to $3.50 is no big change on our balance sheet. Second, it encourages us to plan in terms of the higher price. How would assuming a price of $5 affect our choice of cars or our driving habits. It would be a shame if the lessons we learned during this summer's run up in prices were forgotten now that gas is again under $2.

I realize, that those who would participate in this are already environmentally conscientious, and no I'm not certain I have the discipline to do it myself, but it is an idea that I think could make a difference for individuals, and maybe, just maybe, for society.